Investment

Investing in Agricultural Commodities as an Inflation Hedge

March 15, 2023 by Ben Leave a Comment

Investing in agriculture directly may look like a wise strategic move at first. Regardless of whether the economy is weak or strong, people still need to eat. This is why farming and agriculture are considered recession-proof investments, except when armed conflict or war arises. Furthermore, as the world’s population is constantly growing, we will need even more food to be able to feed everyone.

Buying agricultural land can be a good investment strategy but is certainly not for everyone. Farming not only requires a substantial capital investment but leasing and operating a farm can be a costly and time-consuming endeavor. Fortunately, there are plenty of good ways to invest in agriculture such as mutual funds, ag ETFs, stocks, and farm REITs.

Stocks

Agriculture or farm stocks give investors access to major publicly-traded companies, including those involved in growing crops and businesses supporting farms. Investing in businesses engaged in crop and food production is one opportunity to explore. Examples of such publicly-traded crop production companies include AppHarvest, Adecoagro SA, and Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.

Another option is to buy shares in various sectors that provide supporting activities. There are hundreds of thousands of companies that specialize in packaging, processing, distribution, and other supporting activities. Such sectors include crop processors and distributors, equipment manufacturers, and seeds and fertilizer producers. Many businesses are engaged in the production of seeds and fertilizers, for example, including companies such as FMC Corp, Corteva Agriscience, and Scotts Miracle-Gro. The sector was in haywire last year due to severe weather, new export-licensing regulations, and the high cost of natural gas. However, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has made carriers shun Russia, which is a major fertilizer exporter, causing stocks to rise to record levels.

There are also companies that specialize in supporting activities such as processing, transport, and distribution of crops. Some examples include Bunge Limited and Archer Daniels Midland.

Note that while stocks provide good equity returns, the stock markets can be volatile due to adverse conditions, including economic, market, regulatory, and political developments. Foreign securities, in particular, are subject to multiple risks such as political, economic, and currency exchange rate risks. The agriculture and farming industries can be affected by government regulations, global competition, export and import controls, world events, consumption, and commodity prices. For all the reasons above, stocks are considered one of the riskiest investment products.

Farm REITs

Farm real estate investment trusts invest in a portfolio of farmland and then provide farmer-friendly leases. This is the closest you can get to operating an actual farm with the added benefit of significant diversification. REITs provide investors with the opportunity to own stocks in more than one farm and across geographies. Also, stocks have a better liquidity and can be quickly traded on the major exchanges. Unfortunately, there are just a few farm REITs to invest in, including Gladstone Land Corporation and Farmland Partners Inc.

Agricultural Mutual Funds

Some mutual funds invest in agriculture and farming businesses as part of their portfolio. The goal is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing indirectly or directly in equity-related securities and equities. Similar to stocks, investing in mutual funds can be risky as the value of securities can fluctuate. Adverse events such as floods, droughts, and fires can affect the commodities and agricultural markets and negatively impact demand and supply relationships.

Soft Commodities

Soft commodities are actually futures contracts whereby the underlying commodities are grown and not mined or extracted otherwise. This category covers a wide range of agricultural products, including livestock, wheat, rice, sugar, cotton, coffee, cocoa, and soybeans. Some exchange traded funds and notes give exposure to a single commodity, whether grains or corn, while others include a basket of commodities. The Invesco DB Agriculture ETF, for instance, specializes in sugar, soybeans, wheat, and corn futures contracts. The fund is only suitable for investors with a high-risk profile as it trades in volatile markets. The iPath Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex ETN also invests in a basket of commodities, including cotton, coffee, sugar, soybeans, wheat, and corn. As the ETNs have no principal protection, they are riskier than other types of debt securities. As unsecured debt securities, ETNs are not guaranteed or an obligation, indirectly or directly of a third party. In general, due to risks associated with pathogens and adverse weather conditions, soft commodity features are riskier and more volatile than other debt securities. Harvesting, seeding, and weather forecasts, for instance, can cause fluctuations in oilseed or grain prices, which can affect contract values based on delivery dates.

Using Agricultural Commodities as an Inflation Hedge

Agricultural commodities can be a good investment when inflation rises quickly. The price of agricultural products, industrial and precious metals, gas, and oil rises with inflationary pressures. Due to the fact that these commodities could be volatile markets, it is important to carefully choose the products you would invest in. Also, solid investment firms can be a good choice in uncertain times but commodities only make for a small percentage of the final product they sell.

Corn, soybeans, and livestock are considered some of the best farm commodities to invest in. Corn, for example, is a staple as livestock feed and in ethanol production. Over 1.2 billion metric tons are produced globally per year.

Investors use a variety of futures contracts and ETFs to trade for profit. When predicting price fluctuations, there are different factors they take into account, including oil and gas prices. When prices increase, the ethanol market sees a surge in demand, which results in a higher demand for corn. Also, there are more price fluctuations during the summer months due to the fact that corn is a warm-season crop. If crop-damaging storms occur, this may impact supply and market prices.

With livestock trading, there are different factors that play a role. One is the cost of feed such as soybeans, wheat, and corn. When prices are high, farmers may choose to shorten the period during which livestock is fed, resulting in excess supply. Illnesses that affect livestock, including outbreaks caused by parasites, bacteria, and viruses, also affect demand and supply.

Finally, soybeans are used in margarine, cooking oils, lumber, and building materials. Due to the fact that they have uses in a variety of food products, any news about adverse health effects could result in a low demand.

What is a commodities super-cycle?

January 6, 2023 by Ben Leave a Comment

A commodities supercycle or boom is a period of sustained and continued expansion due to increased demand for goods and products. Such supercycles are driven by economic growth and demand for energy sources, manufactured materials, and raw materials.

In-Demand Commodities during a Supercycle

Commodities that are in high demand include natural gas, coal, crude oil, aluminum, copper, and iron ore.

Natural Gas and Oil

Natural gas is used to manufacture iron, steel, bricks, glass, and paper. It is also used by utilities companies for electricity generation and by the commercial sector for metals preheating, incineration, and waste treatment. Crude oil is refined to produce diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline which are used to power equipment and for transportation.

Global political tensions, conflicts, and sanctions as in the case of the Russia/Ukraine conflict push up natural gas and oil prices. Gas prices have already doubled while oil prices have recently reached $139 a barrel, the highest we have seen in about 14 years.

Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of natural gas and the second biggest crude oil exporter. If one country relies on Russia for gas and receives less, it has to find an alternative source, thus impacting supply elsewhere.

Industrial Metals

Coal is used by steelmakers to produce steel and by utilities companies to generate electricity. Aluminum is a key component of airplane parts, electrical transmission lines, window frames, and other goods. Copper is used as a construction material for plumbing and roofing and for the manufacturing of industrial machinery and electrical equipment. Iron ore has many applications such as manufacturing catalysts, auto parts, magnets, and steels and construction of bridges and commercial buildings.

Demand for industrial metals has been high during all commodities supercycles. In 2008, for example, China’s demand for industrial metals, including aluminum, coal, and steel, resulted in record-high prices in 2008 and kept prices on the rise until 2014.

When it comes to precious metals, we have seen an increasing demand for silver and gold. Commodity supercycles have no effect on the industrial use of specialty metals but they become more attractive as an investment tool and a hedge against inflationary pressures.

Why Commodity Supercycles Occur

Commodity supercycles occur in response to profound changes in how societies and economies function. Such changes increase demand for a wide range of commodities. History has witnessed 4 supercycles over the past 120 years. The first such cycle occurred during the US mass industrialization in the 1890s and continued until 1918, driven by an increased demand for weapons and armaments during World War 1. The most recent commodities supercycle occurred in 2001, with China joining the World Trade Organization. China’s large-scale urbanization and economic reforms increased demand for commodities. The fourth supercycle ended with the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008.

New Supercycle on the Horizon

There are some signs that we are witnessing a fifth supercycle driven by the energy transition and global health crisis. Metal and oil prices have skyrocketed recently, and producers find it increasingly difficult to meet demand. In fact, the China – United States trade war and Covid-19 pandemic forced many producers to reduce capacity while there has been little investment in new coal, gas, and oil supply projects.

In addition, the current commodity supercycle is marked by a growth in demand for agricultural products and specialty metals such as silver and gold. Agricultural commodities, in particular, are expected to increase in value due to demand for biofuels and demand from China. As air quality, water, and land are at a premium, demand for agricultural products will remain high in China for the next 5 – 10 years.

The conflict in Ukraine is also pushing up agricultural commodities prices, with over 17 percent increase in the price of corn, barley, oats, and other grains. Vegetable oils have seen the biggest price hikes (23.2 percent) as Ukraine is the biggest sunflower oil exporter while Russia is the world’s second biggest. Skyrocketing prices for grains, corn, vegetable oils, and wheat are already threatening food shortages around the globe. Shortages are mainly caused due to disruptions in export flows, with large quantities of produce still sitting in Ukraine because of the blockage of major ports. There is also a risk that some crops would be damaged or destroyed, including spring crops such as soybeans, barley, and corn.

Demand for commodities is expected to increase further as economies around the world are gradually reopening after a significant rise in vaccination rates.

How Is the New Supercycle Different?

When a new supercycle is to occur, we are likely to see some differences. One is the green fiscal stimulus that couples up environmental objectives with crisis spending and efforts to restart the global economy. This transition to a system that is more efficient and cleaner is expected to give rise to new emerging sectors and new jobs and opportunities. The American Jobs Plan, for example, includes a proposed $174 billion investment to accelerate the domestic electric vehicle industry, coupled with commitments to green infrastructure and clean energy. The European Union also agreed a massive green stimulus, with funds to be invested in alternative fuel projects that support climate action. China has announced plans to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In Canada, Covid-19-related spending was the main focus of the previous two budgets but in 2022, the federal government announced a comprehensive package of measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Under the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, Canada is taking action to promote clean industrial growth, create sustainable jobs, and achieve zero-net emissions by 2050.

This focus on clean energy means that if a new commodity supercycle is to occur, it will be driven by an increased demand for copper. Copper prices already increased by 17 percent in 2021 amidst sustainable and green initiatives. Copper has a wide range of applications such as high conductivity wires, electrical cables and wiring, and power transmission lines. It is used in green and traditional infrastructure and is a major component in electric vehicles, including charging stations, wiring, inverters, batteries, and electric motors. At the same time, shortages are expected to occur due to pandemic-related disruptions of mining operations in Peru and Chile and an increased demand in China. While demand from China is expected to gradually moderate, it will not do so in many parts of the world.

It is clear that the various green stimulus packages and climate change plans will not drive demand for fossil fuels down, at least not in the short run. After all, if we want to build green infrastructure, we will need traditional fuels. Long-term implications, however, are far from clear.

Best Secured Credit Cards in Canada

June 8, 2022 by Ben 15 Comments

This page was last updated on October 12, 2022

Credit cards are useful in that they help build good credit, book hotel accommodation, rent cars, and purchase goods and services online. Interest rates have been low since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic but some people with bad or tarnished credit may not qualify for regular cards. This is where secured cards come handy in allowing users to build good credit and shop in-store or buy products online.

Best Secured Credit Cards for Canadians

Major banks no longer offer secured credit cards which means that choices are more limited for Canadians. Still there are some good offers to look into if you have no or blemished credit like the cards that Home Trust and Refresh Financial feature.

Neo Secured Credit Card

The first secured credit card from Neo Financial is made for those who want low cost way to build their credit. Neo charges no monthly or annual fees and does not run credit checks. This means that anyone is eligible for this secured card. The only fee that comes with the card is the modest $50 security deposit. Approval is instant and guaranteed, just like the 1% cashback across all purchases. In addition to the 1% guaranteed, you can earn an average of 5% unlimited cashback at thousands of Neo partners. At participating partners, you can even earn 15% cashback on your first purchase. Neo’s secured credit card is a great option, whether you are looking to repair your credit or just starting out.

Interest rate: 19.99%-24.99%
Annual fee: $0
Cashback: 1% minimum, average 5% at partners

Refresh Secured Card

This card is no longer available. Check out their Credit Builder Loan. Refresh Financial offers a secured card that helps users to get a credit boost by making timely monthly payments. There is even a feature that allows you to get an idea how your repayment and spending patterns affect your credit rating. You can use their handy online calculator to check your utilization rate. For example, if the balance is $100 and the limit $600, then you have an optimal credit utilization rate (17 percent). There are other benefits for users, one being that payments are reported to both bureaus. Another is that the higher your credit score is, the lower your interest rate.

Interest rate: 17.99 percent
Maintenance fee: $3/month
Annual fee: $12.95
Credit limit: $200 – $10,000

Home Trust Secured No-Fee Visa

Also a good choice to fix your score fast, the Home Trust Secured No-Fee Visa has been voted 2020’s Best Credit Card for Rebuilding Credit. You will not only benefit from a zero annual fee but you only pay interest on your outstanding balance. The card allows you to make purchases and pay online up to your deposit limit. Home Trust also allows you to choose a deposit limit that works for you, and it can be as low as $500 and as high as $10,000.

Purchase interest rate: 19.99 percent
Annual fee: none

Home Trust Secured Visa

This is a low interest option to rebuild credit as long as you keep your account active and make timely payments. There are many benefits for holders such as the option to set your limit, set accounts online, pay utility bills, and make purchases online. The card also comes with purchase security coverage so that all eligible purchases are insured against damage or theft for 90 days. You can use the card to make payments in more than 200 territories and countries and with merchants that accept Visa cards.

Interest rate on purchases: 14.90 percent
Fee: $5 per month or $59 annual fee

What Is a Secured Credit Card?

Secured cards work much like standard ones in that they allow holders to build a positive credit history and make purchases, whether they buy groceries, book flights or cruises, or repay other outstanding balances. The most common varieties are American Express, MasterCard, and Visa. Whatever the brand of choice, users have to make a deposit which is used as a safeguard by the issuer as to cover any outstanding balances in case of missed or late payments.

Are Secured Credit Cards for You?

If you have bad credit and can’t qualify for a standard unsecured card, this is a good option to rebuild credit by making small purchases and paying the balance in full and on time. Using the card responsibly also means that you won’t incur interest payments. Interest rates are higher on average, and paying more than the minimum will save you a lot of money.

Benefits of Secured Credit Cards

The main benefit of secured cards is that they offer the chance to rebuild credit and apply for a wide variety of products with preferential terms and affordable rates. Your account history is forwarded to the major bureaus and goes toward your credit report. Not only this but you can use the card to shop online and make secure payments. Some issuers also offer added incentives such as upgrading and rewards points.

Security Deposit, Credit Limits, and Card Fees

When you get approved for a secured card, you will be asked to make a cash deposit which is equal or larger than your credit line. This means that credit limit is based on the deposit made. Some issuers offer the option to increase the credit line after a certain period provided that you use the card responsibly. Secured cards typically come with annual fees but there are some issuers that advertise zero fees.

Alternatives to Secured Credit Cards

If you can’t get a secured card, one option is to apply for a prepaid card that you can use to pay for services and goods. It is not linked to a credit, checking, or savings account and allows you to keep cash for later use. A major drawback is the fact that your payment history will not be reported to the credit bureaus. Still, they offer some benefits such as ease of use and safe and secure payments. Prepaid cards are easy to reload, and there are different ways to do this – in person, online, by direct deposit, or via bank account transfer.

Getting an unsecured card for bad credit is also an option, albeit the choice is more limited. Some issuers offer unsecured cards to Canadians with fair and good credit, regardless of their annual income. Added benefits for customers are low annual fees and interest rates, no fees for supplementary cardholders, and zero fraud liability.

A third option to look into is payday loans, and there are some benefits to consider such as fast and easy application, borrowed amount based on income level, and no credit check guaranteed approval. Still, getting a payday loan can be risky because of the very high interest rates and short terms that finance providers offer.

Other alternatives that financial institutions offer include guarantor and short-term loans, secured loans, overdrafts, and debit cards. The choice of product depends on your credit score, income, occupation, and financial circumstances.

In general, getting a secured card is a good choice for customers with little or no credit exposure, including young people and newcomers to Canada. It is also an option for borrowers with blemished credit who are refused a loan or credit card because they have past delinquencies, recent missed or late payments, or for any other reason. Borrowers with low or no income and high balances on cards and loans are also likely to get their application denied. A secured credit card is a good alternative for borrowers with a tarnished credit history who need a fresh start and a card to make daily purchases. We all know what having poor credit means – higher home and auto insurance premiums, difficulty securing a home lease, higher loan rates, and even strained personal relationships. A secured credit card offers users the chance to master good money management skills by borrowing responsibly.

What Is Responsible Investment

April 13, 2022 by Ben 2 Comments

Responsible investment is an approach or strategy that takes into account governance, social, and environmental factors. Responsible investors acknowledge the fact that assets and businesses underperform when ignoring ethical, corporate governance, or social issues.

Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors

Responsible investment is about opting to invest in businesses that drive change, such as addressing public health issues and growing inequality, mitigating climate change, or improving labor standards. Examples of environmental issues that affect investment decisions are deforestation, pollution, waste, resource depletion, and climate change. Some of the social issues that impact the decision-making process are working conditions, child labor, modern slavery, and human rights. Corporate governance factors that can play a role in the selection of investments are donations and political lobbying, board structure and diversity, executive pay, and corruption and bribery.

ESG Integration

ESG integration is basically the inclusion of governance, social, and environmental factors in investment analysis. Issues such as the human resource policies, R&D, and product strategy of a company are analyzed, based on what issues the asset manager or institutional investor prioritizes. The extent to which the analysis is reliable and thoroughgoing depends on the values, sources of information, experience, and background of the analyst.

What Is Socially Responsible Investing?

Socially responsible investing refers to a diverse set of approaches that utilize environmental and social criteria when evaluating companies. Social criteria can cover a wide range of issues such as respect to gender and race, promotion and hiring practices, occupational safety and health, community welfare, etc. Environmental criteria can be things like:

Waste and recycling
Impact on natural resources
Raw material sourcing
Resource and energy efficiency
GHG emissions
Environmental management

Typically, investors score and select companies based on a set of chosen criteria. They first compile a list of qualifying companies and then evaluate their financial performance.

Thematic investment is a subtype of socially responsible investing whereby funds select companies that fall under a specific theme, such as climate change, pollution control, low carbon energy, or water distribution. A healthcare fund, for example, would invest in high-tech companies, nursing homes, health insurance providers, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies.

Green investment falls under thematic investing and covers a variety of approaches that seek to support eco-friendly or green assets. These can include waste management, recycling, pollution control, and energy efficiency technologies, smart grids, low carbon vehicles, etc.

Impact Investing

Impact investing is a strategy that seeks to achieve a specific objective while generating financial returns. Such an objective can be supporting companies that hire persons with disabilities, companies promoting access to basic services such as education, healthcare, and housing, or projects providing employment to community members. Basically, the goal is to generate both positive environmental and social impact and financial returns.

Impact investors range from development finance institutions and family and institutional foundations to wealth managers, financial advisors, pension funds, and banks. The impact investment market has attracted a wide variety of institutional and individual players, including:

Nonprofits
Family offices
Insurance companies
Private foundations
Religious institutions
Diversified financial institutions
Fund managers

Socially Responsible Mutual Funds

These funds target and invest in companies that meet environmental, religious, moral, and social standards. They choose the securities that make up their investment portfolio based on both financial and ESG criteria such as policies aimed at fostering social inclusion, reducing poverty, or curbing the carbon footprint. Like other funds, they also seek to invest in companies with robust corporate government policies and strong balance sheets. The three main approaches that socially responsible funds utilize are impact investing, ESG integration, and value-based investing.

Typically, they target companies that employ and train disadvantaged minorities, promote responsible forestry, water and clean air conservation, or fight climate change. When looking into different mutual funds, investors typically account for factors such as experience, performance potential, risks, costs, and the extent to which the investment portfolios align with their values. There is a wide selection of socially responsible funds for investors to screen, a few examples being the SDRP S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserve, Vanguard FTSE Social Index Fund, and Parnassus Core Equity Investor. Parnassus, for example, excludes companies within the nuclear energy and fossil fuel sectors while the S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserve only targets fossil fuel-free companies. Vanguard eschews investments in companies within the gambling, alcohol, and tobacco sectors, civilian firearms manufacturers, and companies within the nuclear power and fossil fuel industries.

Socially Responsible ETFs

Socially responsible ETFs include a range of assets, including sector, international, and domestic equities. ETFs mainly invest in companies based on factors such as environmental and social impact. The iShares GNMA Bond ETF, for example, provides investors with the opportunity to promote affordable housing. The iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF offers investors the chance to reduce their carbon footprint by investing in companies across a broad range of sectors, including real estate, energy, communication, and industrials, which are less dependent on fossil fuels. There are also ETFs with a focus on gender equity such as the SPDR SSGA Gender Diversity Index ETF, which invests in companies that help promote gender diversity. Another example is the iShares MSCI KLD 400 Social ETF which excludes companies that are involved in adult entertainment, military weapons, gambling, tobacco, and alcohol.

Socially Responsible Investing vs. Responsible Investing

While both terms are used interchangeably, there are some notable differences. Responsible investing refers to a broad range of strategies that consider both environmental and social factors and financial returns. The three main approaches here are impact investing, ESG integration, and socially responsible investing. With SRI, issuers or companies are excluded /negative screening/ or included /positive screening/ as investments based on environmental or social impacts. Positive screening might favor companies engaged in clean technology and alternative energy, environmental sustainability, or social justice. Negative screening, on the other hand, may mean eschewing investments in companies that have unacceptably high carbon footprints or a poor waste management record. Other negative screens may include labor violations, production of defense tools and weapons, gambling, tobacco and alcohol, and lack of diversity on boards. Exclusionary or negative screening is used to exclude companies within industries such as gas and oil and those that are contrary to international conventions and declarations. Common exclusions can also be:

Gross human rights violations
Nuclear power
Companies operating in a particular region or country
Hospitals or clinics practicing abortions
Companies operating in violation to international agreements such as the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development or the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Inflation in Canada

January 11, 2022 by Ben 6 Comments

Inflation rates are record high around the world, and Canada is no exception, with an 18-year high of 4.7 percent in November. Prices rose across sectors, ranging from bakery, dairy, and meat to furniture, household products, energy, and transportation. A combination of factors is driving inflation, the main being money printing, high oil prices, product shortages, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up consumer demand.

Reasons for Record High Inflation

Whether high inflation rates are driven by global supply chain issues or money printing is a hotly debated issue at the moment. In the view of some academics and finance experts at the Bank of Canada, it is supply chain disruptions that cause inflationary pressures and drive food and energy prices up. According to a second group of academics, monetary printing creates an overabundance of demand while supply would not always catch up. The result is inflation whereby prices rise and purchasing power declines.

If we take the monetarists’ argument, inflation is not a temporary phenomenon and requires a tight fiscal policy and interest rate hikes. Such policies would involve tax increases, spending cuts, unemployment, and recession. Recession is generally a period of economic decline marked by substantially lower levels of industrial and economic activity. Businesses see less demand and are forced to lay off workers to cut costs, generating unemployment and insecurity.

As prices rise, inflation also eats away at our money and savings. Inflationary pressures not only result in an overall decline of purchasing power but affect the performance of companies and interest rates on savings accounts. When inflation is high, central banks would typically raise interest rates to discourage consumers from borrowing and buying and keep the cost of goods and services stable. The Bank of Canada recently signaled that interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out as a way to keep inflation under control. The current situation, however, is high inflation and low interest rates on savings whereby the value of your money declines. Fortunately, there are plenty of things to do to protect your savings, like investing in real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto, and defensive stocks.

Investing in Real Estate

As the value of real estate rises with inflation, rental income can be a potential hedge, especially when it comes to short-term leases such as multi-family properties. Investors who are able to keep their mortgage terms the same and adjust their rent up benefit from inflation. Investing in real estate also provides recurring income that either exceeds or keeps pace with inflation.

Precious Metals

Precious metals such as platinum, silver, and gold are known to be a hedge against inflation as well as a portfolio diversifier. Each precious metal, whether palladium or gold, has its own unique specifics, benefits, and risks. Gold, for example, is less affected by demand and supply, making it easy to sell and buy. An added advantage is the fact that there are different investment options to choose from, including numismatic coins, bars, and proof and bullion gold coins. The downside is that it doesn’t produce passive income the way real estate does.

Commodities

When inflation is high, commodity prices also rise and offer a good return potential. Unlike financial assets such as bonds and stocks, commodities are one of the few investment classes that actually benefit from inflationary pressures. The rationale is that rising demand for services and products results in price increases and hence, the value of the commodities that go into producing goods and services also increases.

Bonds and stocks, on the other hand, tend to perform better when the inflation rate is either slowing or stable. When inflation picks up, it reduces the interest rate that bonds pay while high-dividend and income-oriented stock prices fall. This is why returns from commodity indexes like the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, Credit Suisse Commodities Benchmark, and Bloomberg Commodity Index are independent of bond and stock returns.

Defensive Stocks

Defensive stocks offer stable earnings and dividends regardless of market conditions and typically outperform other investments in periods of economic decline such as recession or stock market crash. The reason is that they belong to sectors of the economy where there are only minor changes in demand. Such sectors are, for example, healthcare, utilities, and food and beverages. The consumer defensive sector includes businesses engaged in the production of packaging, personal and household products, food and beverages, and tobacco. The sector also includes companies offering services such as training and education. Organizations providing healthcare services fall in this category, including medical supplies and equipment, long-term care facilities, hospitals, home health care, research services, and pharmaceuticals. Examples are also life science development and biotech, vaccine developers, and medical device manufacturers. A third sector is utilities, comprising independent power producers and water, gas, and electric utilities and a fourth – communication services such as media and advertising, 5G network, and telephone and broadband.

Crypto Currencies

Investing in crypto currencies can be a viable alternative to stocks and bonds, with a return of over 6 percent. Proponents point to the fact that bitcoin is not tied to a particular economy, fiscal policy or currency and cannot be devalued by a central bank or government printing money. Not only is bitcoin a digital currency but it has a limited supply and is secure, interchangeable, and durable. Finance experts, however, warn that crypto is a highly volatile asset and one tied to speculative trading. Also, cryptocurrencies have been around for a relatively short period to establish whether they can really act as a hedge against inflation.

Gold, on the other hand, has held its value for centuries. Academics at Duke University also note that bitcoin is vulnerable to crashes and manias over relatively short periods, which makes it a risky asset. Its value is tied to two factors – speculative trading and supply. All in all, bitcoin may have a limited value in developed postindustrial countries with stable fiat currencies. Crypto currencies may have a more practical use in countries prone to political instability and turmoil and hyperinflation.

Summing Up

Inflation is currently higher than normal in Canada, primary drivers being money printing, pent-up demand, and supply chain bottlenecks. Droughts affecting agricultural produce across the country are only making things worse.

Global supply chain disruptions are likely to continue in 2022, mainly due to China’s Covid-19 zero policy, resulting in delayed ships and overwhelmed ports. Inflation rates of 4 – 5 percent could also be with us until 2024. While these changes are temporary, a shift in Canada’s monetary policy may not have the desired effect. Hiking interest rates would result in economic slowdown at a time when governments around the world are withdrawing emergency support and fiscal stimulus.

What Canadians can do to protect their savings is invest in precious metals, real estate, defensive stocks, or commodities, all of which acting as a hedge against inflation. Other assets that offer protection against inflation are leveraged loans, real estate investment trusts, and mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds.