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Inflation in Canada

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Inflation rates are record high around the world, and Canada is no exception, with an 18-year high of 4.7 percent in November. Prices rose across sectors, ranging from bakery, dairy, and meat to furniture, household products, energy, and transportation.  A combination of factors is driving inflation, the main being money printing, high oil prices, product shortages, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up consumer demand.

Reasons for Record High Inflation

Whether high inflation rates are driven by global supply chain issues or money printing is a hotly debated issue at the moment. In the view of some academics and finance experts at the Bank of Canada, it is supply chain disruptions that cause inflationary pressures and drive food and energy prices up. According to a second group of academics, monetary printing creates an overabundance of demand while supply would not always catch up. The result is inflation whereby prices rise and purchasing power declines.

If we take the monetarists’ argument, inflation is not a temporary phenomenon and requires a tight fiscal policy and interest rate hikes. Such policies would involve tax increases, spending cuts, unemployment, and recession. Recession is generally a period of economic decline marked by substantially lower levels of industrial and economic activity. Businesses see less demand and are forced to lay off workers to cut costs, generating unemployment and insecurity.

As prices rise, inflation also eats away at our money and savings. Inflationary pressures not only result in an overall decline of purchasing power but affect the performance of companies and interest rates on savings accounts. When inflation is high, central banks would typically raise interest rates to discourage consumers from borrowing and buying and keep the cost of goods and services stable. The Bank of Canada recently signaled that interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out as a way to keep inflation under control. The current situation, however, is high inflation and low interest rates on savings whereby the value of your money declines. Fortunately, there are plenty of things to do to protect your savings, like investing in real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto, and defensive stocks.

Investing in Real Estate

As the value of real estate rises with inflation, rental income can be a potential hedge, especially when it comes to short-term leases such as multi-family properties. Investors who are able to keep their mortgage terms the same and adjust their rent up benefit from inflation. Investing in real estate also provides recurring income that either exceeds or keeps pace with inflation.

Precious Metals

Precious metals such as platinum, silver, and gold are known to be a hedge against inflation as well as a portfolio diversifier. Each precious metal, whether palladium or gold, has its own unique specifics, benefits, and risks. Gold, for example, is less affected by demand and supply, making it easy to sell and buy. An added advantage is the fact that there are different investment options to choose from, including numismatic coins, bars, and proof and bullion gold coins. The downside is that it doesn’t produce passive income the way real estate does.

Commodities

When inflation is high, commodity prices also rise and offer a good return potential. Unlike financial assets such as bonds and stocks, commodities are one of the few investment classes that actually benefit from inflationary pressures. The rationale is that rising demand for services and products results in price increases and hence, the value of the commodities that go into producing goods and services also increases.

Bonds and stocks, on the other hand, tend to perform better when the inflation rate is either slowing or stable. When inflation picks up, it reduces the interest rate that bonds pay while high-dividend and income-oriented stock prices fall. This is why returns from commodity indexes like the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, Credit Suisse Commodities Benchmark, and Bloomberg Commodity Index are independent of bond and stock returns.

Defensive Stocks

Defensive stocks offer stable earnings and dividends regardless of market conditions and typically outperform other investments in periods of economic decline such as recession or stock market crash. The reason is that they belong to sectors of the economy where there are only minor changes in demand. Such sectors are, for example, healthcare, utilities, and food and beverages. The consumer defensive sector includes businesses engaged in the production of packaging, personal and household products, food and beverages, and tobacco. The sector also includes companies offering services such as training and education. Organizations providing healthcare services fall in this category, including medical supplies and equipment, long-term care facilities, hospitals, home health care, research services, and pharmaceuticals. Examples are also life science development and biotech, vaccine developers, and medical device manufacturers. A third sector is utilities, comprising independent power producers and water, gas, and electric utilities and a fourth – communication services such as media and advertising, 5G network, and telephone and broadband.

Crypto Currencies

Investing in crypto currencies can be a viable alternative to stocks and bonds, with a return of over 6 percent. Proponents point to the fact that bitcoin is not tied to a particular economy, fiscal policy or currency and cannot be devalued by a central bank or government printing money. Not only is bitcoin a digital currency but it has a limited supply and is secure, interchangeable, and durable. Finance experts, however, warn that crypto is a highly volatile asset and one tied to speculative trading. Also, cryptocurrencies have been around for a relatively short period to establish whether they can really act as a hedge against inflation.

Gold, on the other hand, has held its value for centuries. Academics at Duke University also note that bitcoin is vulnerable to crashes and manias over relatively short periods, which makes it a risky asset. Its value is tied to two factors – speculative trading and supply. All in all, bitcoin may have a limited value in developed postindustrial countries with stable fiat currencies. Crypto currencies may have a more practical use in countries prone to political instability and turmoil and hyperinflation.

Summing Up

Inflation is currently higher than normal in Canada, primary drivers being money printing, pent-up demand, and supply chain bottlenecks. Droughts affecting agricultural produce across the country are only making things worse.

Global supply chain disruptions are likely to continue in 2022, mainly due to China’s Covid-19 zero policy, resulting in delayed ships and overwhelmed ports. Inflation rates of 4 – 5 percent could also be with us until 2024. While these changes are temporary, a shift in Canada’s monetary policy may not have the desired effect. Hiking interest rates would result in economic slowdown at a time when governments around the world are withdrawing emergency support and fiscal stimulus.

What Canadians can do to protect their savings is invest in precious metals, real estate, defensive stocks, or commodities, all of which acting as a hedge against inflation. Other assets that offer protection against inflation are leveraged loans, real estate investment trusts, and mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds.

Home Trust Credit Cards and Financial Solutions

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One of the largest trust companies in Canada, Home Trust features a selection of financial solutions, including credit cards, commercial and residential mortgages, and deposits. It is one of the few providers to offer secured cards to subprime borrowers who are looking to rebuild or improve their credit profile.

Company Overview

Established in 1987, Home Trust is a leading financial service provider with offices in Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax, Montreal, Calgary, and Vancouver. It is a subsidiary of Home Capital Group, the largest provider of uninsured mortgages. Home Capital offers a wide choice of financial products, ranging from government-mortgage securities and TFSAs to investment certificates and short term deposits. Being a wholly owned subsidiary, Home Trust features a selection of guaranteed investment certificates tailored to the needs of commercial and individual customers. To clients who need to rebuild credit, Home Trust offers secured credit cards with cashback rewards, shopping security, and travel benefits.

Home Trust Credit Cards

Home Trust offers three types of credit cards, along with convenient online services to pay bills, access statements, and monitor spending behavior.

Home Trust Preferred Visa

Available nationwide except in Quebec, this card features a unique combination of benefits. It earns cash back on eligible purchases and charges no annual fees. The fact that this Visa card by Home Trust offers travel benefits such as guaranteed hotel reservations and no foreign transaction fees makes it a valuable asset for those who travel frequently, either for work or for leisure. While cash back is not offered on purchases in foreign currency, users earn 1 percent on all transactions at home in Canada. Money back is offered on daily purchases such as monthly bill payments, groceries, and gas. There is a convenient online calculator to check earnings based on approximate monthly spending. Added incentives for customers are emergency cash and card replacement, purchase security, and no cap on cashback earnings.

The Home Trust Preferred Visa is available to customers who are permanent residents of legal age and are not currently in bankruptcy. Only applicants with an annual income of $15,000 or higher quality for this card.

  • Annual fee: none
  • Interest Rate: 19.99 percent
  • Cash advances: 19.99 percent
  • Grace period: at least 21 days

Home Trust Equityline® Visa

For those who own their home, this is an option to tap into their home equity and access a secure line of credit. It can be used to pay for college, cover operating or start-up costs, finance home remodeling projects, or consolidate debt. Home Trust also offers an easy-to-use online calculator to calculate interest savings when consolidating debt. To determine their savings, users are asked to enter their current interest rate and balance. Consolidating $20,000 in debt with 22.99 percent interest, for example, saves $2,600 in annual interest payments.

With Home Trust’s Equityline® Visa, users benefit from a revolving line of credit that can be as high as $10,000. Added perks are low interest rates, no prepayment penalty, cash back on purchases, and no foreign exchange fees. Users get 1 percent back on qualifying purchases for no annual fee. This Equityline® Visa charges no foreign transaction fees, whether shopping online or using the card abroad.

  • Annual interest rate: 9.99 percent
  • Cash advance rate: 9.99 percent
  • Annual fee: none
  • Interest-free period: at least 21 days
  • Mortgage title fee: up to $781

Mortgage discharge fees vary by province as follows: Ontario – $295, the Maritime Provinces and Manitoba – $200, British Columbia – $75, and Alberta – $0.

To apply, customers are asked to provide employment and address information, along with details about their mortgage and property, including annual taxes, purchase price, and estimated home value. Additionally, applicants have to provide information about their liabilities and assets and the intended use of the funds, whether it is home improvement, debt consolidation, or anything else. Personal details to include in the application are number of dependents, marital status, and current residential address.

Home Trust Secured Visa

This card is a good choice for those who are looking to rebuild credit and for young people with limited or no credit exposure. It has been rated #1 secured card in 2021 by creditcardGenius and for a good reason. Users can choose from a no annual fee or low interest option and are free to set their own credit limit. The deposit amount can be as high as $10,000 and as low as $500. The best part is that almost everyone gets approved. The fact that monthly payments are reported to the major bureaus expedites credit improvement.

While customers with good or excellent scores could be better served by another card with travel or cashback benefits, Home Trust’s Secured Visa enables users to control their spending and works just like an unsecured credit card. Holders can use it to set up accounts, pay bills, and shop online.

  • Interest rate: 19.99 percent
  • Annual fee: none
  • Interest rate: 14.90
  • Annual fee: $59 percent
  • Interest-free period: at least 21 days
  • Foreign currency conversion: 2 percent

To apply, customers fill in an online application and provide details such as annual income, business phone number, employer name, occupation, and employment status. They are also asked to indicate a security deposit and confirm whether they are a close associate or family member of a head of international organization or a politically exposed domestic or foreign person. There is also an option to add an authorized user for a monthly fee of $2 or annual fee of $19.

Benefits for Users

Home Trust offers a number of benefits to card users, among which affordable interest rates, cash back, online account management, and access to home equity. All cards come with Visa purchase security by Alliance Company of Canada or Royal Sun.

Those who opt for the secured option can use it wherever VISA cards are accepted. Paying the balance on time allows users to build credit and apply for a range of financial products with lucrative rates and rewards. Secured cards are also a better alternative to prepaid cards which are not accepted by all retailers. Whether holders are up to date on their payments or not, prepaid cards have not effect on credit ratings.

Overall, Home Trust is a good financial services provider with a wide choice of product offerings. Perfect for basic banking and financing needs, Home Trust offers secured and unsecured VISA cards with no annual fee, hotel reservations, and other benefits. Online shoppers and travelers enjoy the double benefit of no foreign transaction fees and earning cash back on purchases. In addition to access to credit, customers are offered a range of business and residential mortgage products, including refinancing and renewals, together with high interest deposit solutions and guaranteed investment certificates. Additionally, Home Trust offers customers handy financial resources and information regarding home ownership, holiday spending on a tight budget, the impact of debt on credit rating, and plenty more.

Why Is the Real Estate Market in Ontario Cottage Country Booming?

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When the pandemic started, real estate experts warned that home prices would decline due to recessionary pressures. Yet, after a brief downturn last spring, the market not only experienced a boom but this appears to be a lasting trend. The demand for cottage properties is growing for several reasons. One is that many Canadians are working remotely, and many information professionals choose to move to small towns and the countryside. Second is the fact that the border is closed except for essential travel. It is not clear when Canadians could board a plane, hence is the demand for cottage properties to have a vacation at home and within a commuting distance. Third is the fear of inflation and growing real estate prices as inflation has crept a little higher. But there is more driving prices up than remote working, closed borders, and inflationary fears.

Undersupply of Cottage Properties

There has been an undersupply of decent cottage properties in Ontario. The market imbalance is due to a combination of economic, demographic, and historical factors that created supply shortages even before the pandemic. Take Airbnb, for example. The concept behind it was to create a platform that is part of the sharing economy. Yet, the idea of renting out an extra room to make money on the side has proven attractive, and many choose to rent out, creating a shortage of properties for sale. The booming tech industry is also a contributing factor. The tech sector grew by over 50 percent by 2019, with more than 240,000 jobs in the GTA. Think of Shopify, Kik Messaging, Thelmic Labs, Google, Desire to Learn, Open Text, and many more to mention.

Labor shortages over the years resulted in construction delays. The reason for delays is not enough skilled labor. Additionally, the equipment required to build sewer systems and roads is expensive to maintain, run, and buy. Builders and local governments choose not to buy a lot of equipment because of the shortage of land to build on. There is also the demographic factor, with baby boomers moving to the countryside and not into condos in Toronto. Finally thanks to GO Transit’s commuter rail services, Toronto is now connected to the rest of the GTA. Many people choose to buy homes within a commuting distance to Toronto, thus contributing to an already existing housing shortage and growing demand.

Another reason for the shortage of supply is that cottage owners are less willing to sell compared to homeowners in Toronto. As Chestnut Park CEO Chris Kapches explains, the sale of cottages is typically discretionary “unlike sales in urban environments that are often driven by necessity”.  The result is that cottage supply is further dwindling. Given the competitive market and low stock, real estate is now sold in about 23 days while in 2017 properties were sold in 132 days on average.

Because of the chronic undersupply of properties, the number of homebuyers looking to invest in cottage estate now exceeds the number of listings.

Pandemic-Driven Demand

Work from Home

The pandemic has proven information knowledge professionals that they can work from anywhere where they have a stable Internet connection. With travel restrictions and social distancing protocols still in place, cottage life has become more desirable, and survey results prove this trend. A survey published by CTV News show that 47 percent of young people aged 25 – 35 would choose country or small town living. Close to 2/3 of Canadians aged 25 – 40 also say that they prefer to work remotely if given the option. A 2021 survey by Remax also shows that 57 percent of Canadians in Atlantic Canada prefer country living. Overall, 47 percent of Canadians across all age groups would like to live in the countryside.

The pandemic has caused a mindset shift that is likely to stay. The blurring of recreational property and primary residence is at least in part resulting from the blurring of home and work from home. Even occupations with the highest level of proximity have seen and are likely to see further transformation after the pandemic subsides. This is the case with frontline workers who interact with customers in post offices, financial institutions, and retail stores. Work has partly migrated to digital transactions and e-commerce to curb the further spread of the virus. The computer-based office work sector is largely teleworking. It includes office settings in factories, IT companies, courts, hospitals, and financial institutions. This sector accounts for about 30 percent of employment in advanced economies such as Canada’s. Virtual meetings and remote work have become the norm in administrative settings, and this trend is likely to continue.

In fact, data by Statista shows that 24.2 percent of Canadians would like to work most hours from home and 14.7 percent prefer remote work altogether. Additionally, 40.8 percent say they would like to work half of the hours outside and half at home. Only 9 percent of Canadians prefer to work outside the home. As the pandemic has proven employers that remote work can be as productive as working from the office, this shift is likely to be permanent, with many choosing country living.

Low Interest Rates

The demand for rural properties has led to bidding wars that real estate agents have rarely witnessed. Cottage prices are forecasted to grow by 17 percent in 2021 due to the buying frenzy since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to remote work, demand for recreational properties is driven by historic low interest rates. The pandemic and following containment measures imposed across Canada have plunged the economy into severe contraction, causing widespread unemployment. Recessionary pressures also caused interest rates to drop to near historic lows. In response to the pandemic, the Bank of Canada cut the key rate three times in March 2020 alone. Depending on the situation buyers are in, low interest rates on mortgage loans could mean significant savings. Additionally, some homebuyers saved money because they haven’t been able to travel overseas.

Demographic Profile of Buyers

People looking to buy a recreational property are quite diverse when it comes to demographics and age. Some of the homebuyers are families that send their children to summer camps. As sending kids to camps is not an option and might not be for some time, they want to buy a recreational property in a similar setting. Others usually travel abroad during the summer months and are starting to realize that vacationing abroad might not happen as much over the next couple of years. Still others want to invest in a rural property to keep their families safe. There is also a group of people that are interested in buying a property and change their lifestyle.

Is a Reverse Mortgage a Good Idea?

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A reverse mortgage is a type of a secured loan for which a guarantee is required, typically in the form of residential real estate. It is offered to senior borrowers aged 55 and older to allow them to receive cash income in exchange for their home equity. This option is only available to persons who have a considerable equity or own a residential property meaning that they paid off their mortgage in full. They are allowed to continue to live in their home and receive cash income based on the home equity conversion mortgage limit, their age, and current interest rates.

What Are the Pros of a Reverse Mortgage?

The main benefit for borrowers is the fact that they have regular income post-retirement. They also get non-taxable income and retain title to their property. As an added benefit, homeowners can choose from a variety of disbursement options, including as monthly payments, line of credit, specified amount, or in full. In general, this can be a good option for seniors who need extra income and have a more limited choice of borrowing options. Access to loan funding is an issue for retirees as they no longer receive salaried income. A reverse mortgage is also a good option for individuals who want to stay in their property post-retirement as it is close to their friends, family, or community members. The property may also be close to amenities, community centres, healthcare providers, convenience stores, and shopping malls.

What Are the Cons of a Reverse Mortgage?

A major downside is that borrowers are still responsible for paying homeowners’ association fees, maintenance, insurance, and property taxes. A related problem with reverse mortgages is that borrowers may have their property foreclosed if they are unable to pay homeowner’s insurance or property taxes. There are also fees and charges to consider, including appraisal fees, interest rates, and administrative and closing costs. The latter include home inspection costs, title insurance, and land transfer tax.

Another downside to consider is that interest rates tend to be higher compared to other loan options. The rate depends on provider and term, and similar to other loan products, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate. The administrative and closing costs are also a factor to consider as they can be around $2,000. When it comes to interest charges, they are higher than that of home equity lines of credit and standard mortgages but are lower than payday loans and cash advances, credit cards, private equity lending, personal loans, and unsecured lines of credit.

Finally, a third downside is that as interest charges accrue, home equity goes down which makes it more difficult to qualify for other loan options.

How Do You Qualify for a Reverse Mortgage?

To qualify, customers must have sufficient equity and prove that the home they live in is their primary residence. The amount that can be borrowed depends on factors such as interest rates, outstanding balances on existing mortgages, current property value, and age of the youngest owner. Financial institutions also look at things like type of property, condition, and the age of all persons who are registered on the title.

Should You Get a Reverse Mortgage?

A reverse mortgage can be a good solution if you need money to repay debts, cover healthcare expenses, pay regular bills like gas, electricity, and water, or home repairs or improvements. Another reason to borrow is to use the proceeds to buy a long-term care insurance policy. This is an option for seniors who are likely to end up in an assisted living facility for an extended period. At the same time, many seniors are currently choosing not to transition to a nursing home given the fact that over 80 percent of Covid-19 related deaths occurred in long-term care facilities. This has resulted in increased interest in reverse mortgages on the part of seniors looking to access funds and finance home improvements and renovations. A reverse mortgage helps borrowers to pay for at-home care. One problem is that while home prices have been relatively stable so far, significant price drops are to be expected due to the global pandemic and economic downturn. An extended period of stagnating prices may also have a negative impact on how much equity homeowners are left with. It is typically rising values that mitigate the effect of interest rates which is an unlikely scenario due to the coronavirus. For new borrowers, depressed home values mean that they will be offered less for what their property was worth. For example, for seniors who want to access 30 percent of their equity for a home worth $600,000, they will get $300,000. If the property lost 20 percent of its value, they will only be able to get $144,000.

Those who choose to apply will first have a phone meeting arranged to discuss different loan solutions that may work for their financial circumstances and situation. As a next step, appraisal will be scheduled to provide an estimate of the property’s fair market value. Appraisers are looking at details such as desirability, neighborhood, location, age, upgrades, maintenance, exterior and interior size, and condition. Once the appraisal has been completed, the bank confirms the amount of financing the borrower qualifies for. This is mainly based on factors such as condition, location, age, and whether the property is a freehold, condo, or townhouse. The next step is to decide on both interest rate options and amount to draw.

When looking into reverse mortgages, it also pays to shop around and consider other options such as moving into assisted living residence, buying a smaller apartment or home, or getting a credit card, line of credit or personal loan. Note that Canadians can borrow between 40 and 55 percent of their property’s value, depending on which provider they go for.

Can I Buy a House with Bad Credit?

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Borrowers with a good credit score, enough cash for a down payment and high incomes have access to a variety of loan products with attractive terms and rates. We are not in the same boat, however, and many are facing financial hardship, whether it is the global pandemic, prolonged illness, divorce, or job loss. Fortunately, there are ways to qualify for a mortgage loan even with poor or fair credit as well as alternatives to consider. Here is what you can do to access financing, the pros and cons to weigh in, and other options to look into.

Find Your Credit Score

This is the first step, and it will show you whether your score is as bad as you think. Scores range from 300 and 900 where 680+ is considered good, 600 to 679 is fair, and below 599 is poor. Request a credit report from TransUnion or Equifax to find out how you fare. If you don’t need a detailed report, you can also use an online tool to check your score. Once you’ve done this, you will know what loan products you are likely to qualify.

If you have bad credit, you may still qualify but the interest rate can be in the 10 – 18 percent range which is quite high. With a good score, you can expect to get a mortgage with an interest rate of around 2.5 percent. Note that banks offer lower rates compared to private lenders and trust companies.

What to Do to Get Mortgage Financing

To benefit from lower rates, it pays to try to improve your credit score, especially if you don’t feel any urgency to buy a property. The main things you can do are to pay your bills on time and keep credit card balances low. It is important to pay your bills in a timely manner, including gas, electricity, and water as well as any debt payments that you have. Your FICO score which is what most banks use comprises 5 elements – new inquiries (10 percent), payment history (35 percent), credit mix (10 percent), age of accounts (15 percent), and credit usage (30 percent). As you can easily see, your payment history is one of the most important factors. Not everything goes on your file, however, examples being:

  • Declined applications
  • Driving and parking fines
  • Savings accounts
  • Salary or wages
  • Soft searches
  • Criminal record

You also need to stay under your current credit limit to show finance providers that you are good at handling debt. It is important to keep balances low to reduce your credit utilization ratio. To calculate it, add all outstanding balances that you have and divide them by your total limit. As noted, credit usage makes for 30 percent of your FICO score, and you must try keep your utilization rate low. A good credit utilization rate is anything below 30 percent, showing financial institutions that you are a responsible spender.

You may also want to keep any old accounts that you have as they account for 15 percent of your score. If you close old card accounts, this will affect (shorten) your credit history so it is better to keep them even if you rarely or never use them.

Another way to improve your score is to apply for a secured card as long as your financial institution reports to the main bureaus. You will need to make a deposit which is usually equal to or higher than your credit limit and can vary from $200 to $3,000. This is a form of guarantee for your bank in case you default on your payments. While finance providers require a deposit, secured cards work pretty much like standard ones in that you can make in-store and online purchases, book flights and hotel stays, etc. Getting a secured card makes sense only if you make small purchases and pay the balance in full. This will help keep your credit utilization ratio low. If you make late payments, on the other hand, you can get stuck paying a lot in interest.

Finally, if you have high interest debts such as payday loans or credit cards, what you can do is transfer them to a personal line of credit. As they come with lower rates, you will save on interest charges. Moving high interest balances to a balance transfer credit card is also a way to take advantage of promotional rates which can be low or zero over a period of 6 to 12 months.

Pros and Cons of Buying a House with Bad Credit

It may come as a surprise but there are some advantages to buying a house with fair or bad credit, one being that it will help you build equity. If home prices are stagnated or depressed, you will not be able to build equity but will benefit from price drops. In fact according to the Canada’s housing agency home prices are expected to decline by 25 percent in oil-producing provinces and between 8 and 19 percent elsewhere.

There are downsides to buying a home as well, one being that you are likely to get a smaller loan than what you need. Financial institutions look at your debt-to-income ratio to determine the amount that you qualify for. If you have a lot of debt, then you will not get an offer worth accepting. Buying a house only makes sense if you have saved enough to make a sizable down payment. This not only shows banks that you are a responsible buyer but may help you to get a decent-sized property. Even so, make sure you will be able to pay essential expenses such as health and auto insurance coverage, outstanding debt, utilities, groceries, gas, child care, and property tax.

There are also alternatives to look into like borrowing from your insurance policy or retirement plan, seller financing, and getting a co-signer.