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Inflation in Canada

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Inflation rates are record high around the world, and Canada is no exception, with an 18-year high of 4.7 percent in November. Prices rose across sectors, ranging from bakery, dairy, and meat to furniture, household products, energy, and transportation.  A combination of factors is driving inflation, the main being money printing, high oil prices, product shortages, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up consumer demand.

Reasons for Record High Inflation

Whether high inflation rates are driven by global supply chain issues or money printing is a hotly debated issue at the moment. In the view of some academics and finance experts at the Bank of Canada, it is supply chain disruptions that cause inflationary pressures and drive food and energy prices up. According to a second group of academics, monetary printing creates an overabundance of demand while supply would not always catch up. The result is inflation whereby prices rise and purchasing power declines.

If we take the monetarists’ argument, inflation is not a temporary phenomenon and requires a tight fiscal policy and interest rate hikes. Such policies would involve tax increases, spending cuts, unemployment, and recession. Recession is generally a period of economic decline marked by substantially lower levels of industrial and economic activity. Businesses see less demand and are forced to lay off workers to cut costs, generating unemployment and insecurity.

As prices rise, inflation also eats away at our money and savings. Inflationary pressures not only result in an overall decline of purchasing power but affect the performance of companies and interest rates on savings accounts. When inflation is high, central banks would typically raise interest rates to discourage consumers from borrowing and buying and keep the cost of goods and services stable. The Bank of Canada recently signaled that interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out as a way to keep inflation under control. The current situation, however, is high inflation and low interest rates on savings whereby the value of your money declines. Fortunately, there are plenty of things to do to protect your savings, like investing in real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto, and defensive stocks.

Investing in Real Estate

As the value of real estate rises with inflation, rental income can be a potential hedge, especially when it comes to short-term leases such as multi-family properties. Investors who are able to keep their mortgage terms the same and adjust their rent up benefit from inflation. Investing in real estate also provides recurring income that either exceeds or keeps pace with inflation.

Precious Metals

Precious metals such as platinum, silver, and gold are known to be a hedge against inflation as well as a portfolio diversifier. Each precious metal, whether palladium or gold, has its own unique specifics, benefits, and risks. Gold, for example, is less affected by demand and supply, making it easy to sell and buy. An added advantage is the fact that there are different investment options to choose from, including numismatic coins, bars, and proof and bullion gold coins. The downside is that it doesn’t produce passive income the way real estate does.

Commodities

When inflation is high, commodity prices also rise and offer a good return potential. Unlike financial assets such as bonds and stocks, commodities are one of the few investment classes that actually benefit from inflationary pressures. The rationale is that rising demand for services and products results in price increases and hence, the value of the commodities that go into producing goods and services also increases.

Bonds and stocks, on the other hand, tend to perform better when the inflation rate is either slowing or stable. When inflation picks up, it reduces the interest rate that bonds pay while high-dividend and income-oriented stock prices fall. This is why returns from commodity indexes like the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, Credit Suisse Commodities Benchmark, and Bloomberg Commodity Index are independent of bond and stock returns.

Defensive Stocks

Defensive stocks offer stable earnings and dividends regardless of market conditions and typically outperform other investments in periods of economic decline such as recession or stock market crash. The reason is that they belong to sectors of the economy where there are only minor changes in demand. Such sectors are, for example, healthcare, utilities, and food and beverages. The consumer defensive sector includes businesses engaged in the production of packaging, personal and household products, food and beverages, and tobacco. The sector also includes companies offering services such as training and education. Organizations providing healthcare services fall in this category, including medical supplies and equipment, long-term care facilities, hospitals, home health care, research services, and pharmaceuticals. Examples are also life science development and biotech, vaccine developers, and medical device manufacturers. A third sector is utilities, comprising independent power producers and water, gas, and electric utilities and a fourth – communication services such as media and advertising, 5G network, and telephone and broadband.

Crypto Currencies

Investing in crypto currencies can be a viable alternative to stocks and bonds, with a return of over 6 percent. Proponents point to the fact that bitcoin is not tied to a particular economy, fiscal policy or currency and cannot be devalued by a central bank or government printing money. Not only is bitcoin a digital currency but it has a limited supply and is secure, interchangeable, and durable. Finance experts, however, warn that crypto is a highly volatile asset and one tied to speculative trading. Also, cryptocurrencies have been around for a relatively short period to establish whether they can really act as a hedge against inflation.

Gold, on the other hand, has held its value for centuries. Academics at Duke University also note that bitcoin is vulnerable to crashes and manias over relatively short periods, which makes it a risky asset. Its value is tied to two factors – speculative trading and supply. All in all, bitcoin may have a limited value in developed postindustrial countries with stable fiat currencies. Crypto currencies may have a more practical use in countries prone to political instability and turmoil and hyperinflation.

Summing Up

Inflation is currently higher than normal in Canada, primary drivers being money printing, pent-up demand, and supply chain bottlenecks. Droughts affecting agricultural produce across the country are only making things worse.

Global supply chain disruptions are likely to continue in 2022, mainly due to China’s Covid-19 zero policy, resulting in delayed ships and overwhelmed ports. Inflation rates of 4 – 5 percent could also be with us until 2024. While these changes are temporary, a shift in Canada’s monetary policy may not have the desired effect. Hiking interest rates would result in economic slowdown at a time when governments around the world are withdrawing emergency support and fiscal stimulus.

What Canadians can do to protect their savings is invest in precious metals, real estate, defensive stocks, or commodities, all of which acting as a hedge against inflation. Other assets that offer protection against inflation are leveraged loans, real estate investment trusts, and mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds.

Canadian Guide to Protecting Your Wealth from Inflation

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Inflation is on the rise in Canada and rose to 3.7 percent in July, 2021. This is the biggest jump since May, 2011 and is mainly due to more sectors of the economy reopening and consumers having where to spend their money. While pay rates are set to trail inflation, salary increase budgets are unlikely to catch up with inflationary pressures in 2021. Plus, it is not guaranteed that salaries will go up across all sectors of the economy. Inflation is robust but fortunately, there are ways to protect your wealth and fight the effects of inflation. From buying real estate and investing in stocks to alternative investments and portfolio diversification, there are time-tested strategies to protect your money.

1. Buying Real Estate

Investing in real estate may sound counterintuitive given that the average selling price is $688,000. Prices rose by 38 percent in 2020 alone. In most cases, Canadians looking to buy a home need to apply for a loan. As it turns out, however, the cost of borrowing decreases when wages increase and prices are on the rise. Average home prices are also rising faster than the consumer price index which makes investing in real estate a good hedge against inflation.

Additionally according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, home prices tend to be skewed by listings in expensive metropolitan markets such as Vancouver and Toronto. CREA tracks the house pricing index which gives a more accurate picture in terms of the types and number of properties sold.

2. Investing in Stocks and Bonds

There are investments that actually benefit from inflation, such being energy and retailers stocks. Energy companies profit when inflationary pressures are driven by oil price increases. Retailers also hike prices and considering the pandemic e-commerce boom, investing in e-commerce stocks can be a good idea.

Some equities both benefit and contribute to inflationary pressures, for example, metals, grain, lumber, and crude oil. It makes sense to buy shares in commodity companies either through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds or directly.

Investing in government bonds is yet another way to protect your money from inflation. What portion to dedicate to fixed income depends on how soon you will need cash and your risk tolerance. As a rule, government bonds offer income and security but the shorter the maturity, the lower the yield. That is because investors face less risk of interest rate increases. Bonds with longer maturity are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. The choice of shorter maturity depends on factors such as income requirements, nearing retirement, and the need to diversify investments.

3. Alternative Investments

The price of alternative investments such as silver, gold, and cryptocurrencies is also rising in the long run. As they are risky, dedicating a small portion to alternative investments only makes sense. At the same time, they are thought to not only retain their purchasing power but to outperform when inflationary pressures arise.

Also, there is a wide array of investment options to look into, besides bonds and stocks, each with its proposition, value, and risk factor. The range of solutions includes derivative contracts, commodities, antiques and art, managed futures, hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity.

The category of alternative assets is vast, indeed, but there are some factors to consider when building a portfolio. First, investors can choose to own assets such as farmland, commodities, precious metals, and real estate indirectly or directly. They can either buy physical assets or shares like, for example, invest in shares of gold or gold bars. The same is true for other assets such as real estate or farmland. When buying shares, the asset is tied to physical property, thus giving investors a choice between financial and physical assets.

Some alternative investments are classified as risky, such being the case with farmland. The value of farmland has steadily risen on an annual basis over the last three decades. There are no signs of slowing down in the short term, given the demand for commodities and agricultural products. In fact, farms will need to significantly increase production to meet growing demand as global population growth continues.

An alternative solution is to invest in inflation-linked bonds which are pegged to the consumer price index. In this case, the interest and principal rise and are adjusted for inflation. There are many benefits to investing in inflation-linked bonds such as less risk and volatility and higher returns compared to conventional bonds. A word of caution should be mentioned here, however. When deflation occurs, the bond principal will fall below par value, with interest due on the inflation-adjusted principal. Investors are likely to incur capital losses if deflationary pressures persist. The longer the maturity, the more vulnerable bonds become to interest rate fluctuations.

4. Portfolio Diversification

Building a diversified portfolio is an excellent hedge against inflation. The types of assets that can protect an investment portfolio against inflationary pressures include US stocks and REITs, treasuries, TIPS, commodities, emerging stocks, gold, European and Pacific stocks, and international REITs. Real estate investment trusts, for example, buy a diverse range of real estate that is rented out and produces solid returns. There is also an option to invest in international and US REITs and many have done so since the 2008 US market crush. The fact is that REITs invest in both commercial and residential real estate and are more diversified than conventional real estate portfolios. This means that they are more stable and less risky in case of rising inflation and economic shocks.

5. Consider a Fixed-Rate Mortgage Loan

There are currently variable-rate mortgages offered at about or even less than 1 percent. Getting a variable-rate mortgage sounds tempting as it looks like borrowing for nothing but it comes with a hitch. The fact is that a significant increase in mortgage rates could translate in hundreds and even thousands of dollars in interest over the loan term.

In comparison, five-year fixed-rate mortgages are currently available at about two percent. Regardless of inflationary pressures and rate fluctuations, borrowers pay two percent over the course of the mortgage. Locking in a variable-rate loan is a good idea when inflation is rising.

Investing in stocks, alternative assets, and real estate is worth considering given that high inflation could last for years. According to chief economist with Bank of Montreal Douglas Porter, inflation rates could remain at 3 – 5 percent for a year or even two. The outlook for the U.S. is similar, with prices and inflation rising until 2023. In fact, inflation south of the border is higher than in Canada, reaching 5.4 percent in June. Canada, however, is behind the U.S. on the path to economic recovery which is a red flag when it comes to recessionary pressures. Investing in physical and financial assets now can help mitigate the effect of expected rising inflation. With a variety of inflation-proof stocks such as energy and utilities and exchange traded funds, there are plenty of options to hedge against inflation.

Cryptocurrency in a Nutshell

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A cryptocurrency is a form of virtual or digital currency that can be used to pay for services or products or to trade for profit. The fact that an unregulated currency is traded for profit, sometimes in significant volumes, drives prices up, which is why finance experts warn for a near-future collapse of a speculative bubble. At present, some 10,000 virtual currencies are publicly traded, the most common types being Bitcoin, Cardan, Ethereum, NEO, Steller, and Ripple.

Is Cryptocurrency a Speculative Investment?

Demand for alternative currencies has grown over the past couple of years, mainly because of the significant volume of money printed by central banks. Money printing drives interest rates down, and more people are willing to borrow and make large purchases. At the same time, a low-interest environment means less profit for speculators trading traditional investment instruments, making them look for profits elsewhere. On a macro level, companies such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Galaxy Digital Holdings have significant bitcoin portfolios. Analytics platform MicroStrategy uses bitcoin as its main reserve asset, currently holding over $3 billion. Individual investors are increasingly using fintech apps which have made it easier to trade cryptocurrencies.

There has been a lot of hype around bitcoin but investors and central bankers warn that cryptocurrency is a speculative investment. That is because it is an asset that is overvalued. In a recent article, Financial Times also highlighted the fact that bitcoin lacks a foundation to become an international currency. Another article called it a pyramid scheme much to the surprise of traders. Pyramid schemes are eventually bound to collapse if there are no new traders coming in.

Is Bitcoin Here to Stay?

This is a difficult question to answer and largely depends on whether crypto fits into the traditional roles of currencies. They act as both means of exchange and store of value. Currencies are also used as monetary policy instruments to regulate interest rates. Given the short history of bitcoin, it is difficult to tell whether the cryptocurrency can act as a store of currency. Its value is also volatile unlike standard, more reliable means of exchange. Third, cryptocurrencies are not issued by central banks, which makes it impossible to assess performance based on trade balance and inflation data. There is no way to tell whether bitcoin is expensive or cheap at any given moment.While many argue that crypto is not a viable currency option, others believe that bitcoin is here to stay. Notably, Anthony Hardy, research analyst for Franklin Equity Group points to the fact that technological advances and digital scarcity are the driving forces behind an alternative financial system that is to stay and experience growth.

What’s the Endgame of All the Speculation?

According to economist at Deutsche Bank Marion Laboure, less than 30 percent of the transactions in crypto are for the payment of goods and services. The remaining volume is investment, speculation, and trading. The problem is that bitcoin has a low liquidity as an investment instrument. Low liquidity means that it is difficult to sell, and investors may incur bigger losses as a result.

Jon Danielsson from the London School of Economics also explains that the current bitcoin hoarding and concentration of ownership can hypothetically result in a currency gap divide and give birth to the first multibillionaire. In this sense, the claim that the use of cryptocurrencies results in market democratization is ungrounded. In his view, virtual currencies cannot coexist with standard ones, and it is an all or nothing game. If bitcoin is to replace all the G20 currencies currently in use, then each bitcoin will be valued at $1.5 million. This would lead to a systemic crush. According to Danielsson, crypto is a bubble and while it makes sense to get the most out of it, it is wise to get out in time.

Why Bitcoin?

Bitcoin grew in popularity over the last ten years thanks to three communities of users – speculators, blockchain technology fans, and true believers. It was created with a philosophy behind it – it wouldn’t need a central bank to regulate activity. With prices skyrocketing, however, bitcoin became the next hype in investing and a vehicle of a financial system that it was designed to replace.

The main driver behind its success has been general distrust of financial institutions and the system as a whole. And this is precisely why bitcoin was launched – to take trust out of the system. The timing was also right. Bitcoin was created in 2009 when the global financial crisis cost millions of people their homes, savings, and jobs.

There is also the idea that the state and its systemic elements act as a force for violence. This would then mean that the currencies in circulation are a form of monopoly. Using a cryptocurrency is, in this sense, a form of opposition to state governments. Bitcoin mining is also part of this as traders look at it as a commodity and not as currency.

In 2019 bitcoin and other virtual currencies were already being traded by mainstream investors, hedge funds, venture capital firms, and bitcoin whales. And while crypto has become popular indeed, this came with a cost. For one thing, bitcoin mining consumes a lot of energy. According to estimates by the Cambridge’s Centre for Alternative Finance, electricity consumption accounts for around 0.65 percent of the annual global consumption. It also produces greenhouse gas emissions or about 22 – 23 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. This is the equivalent of the emissions generated by Sri Lanka and Jordan.

Conclusion

Bitcoin was created by a person known as Satoshi Nakamoto. No one has so far discovered who he is or was, and his identity has never been revealed or verified. The crisis in confidence in the financial system seems to have ended. Yet, the biggest winners appear to be the same people that a decentralized system attempted to disempower – banks and institutional investors.

Much is also to be learned about cryptocurrencies as an evolving technology. Additionally, some finance experts claim that there is a better approach to using a decentralized cryptocurrency. Consider Facebook’s own payment system Diem which is a blockchain-based type of a system. The idea behind it is to eliminate additional fees and transaction costs and to facilitate international payments. According to Professor Grundfest, former Securities and Exchange Commission commissioner, the adoption of a new currency would not reduce the cost of payment transactions. A better alternative would be to establish its own bank as the main financial institution for Facebook users. This would allow the company to create banking systems for different regions and states which will be better positioned to reduce costs and meet regulatory requirements. Once multiple banking systems have been created, they can be linked together to create a single global network.

Stable coins have also gained in popularity as means to back virtual currencies with a tangible asset. The problem with this approach is that it will make it easier for people to con the system because it is not as easy to control as traditional currencies. One possible use of cryptocurrencies is in states with weaker currencies where it may be better to invest in crypto than in local bonds and stocks.