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Investing in Agricultural Commodities as an Inflation Hedge

March 15, 2023 by Ben Leave a Comment

Investing in agriculture directly may look like a wise strategic move at first. Regardless of whether the economy is weak or strong, people still need to eat. This is why farming and agriculture are considered recession-proof investments, except when armed conflict or war arises. Furthermore, as the world’s population is constantly growing, we will need even more food to be able to feed everyone.

Buying agricultural land can be a good investment strategy but is certainly not for everyone. Farming not only requires a substantial capital investment but leasing and operating a farm can be a costly and time-consuming endeavor. Fortunately, there are plenty of good ways to invest in agriculture such as mutual funds, ag ETFs, stocks, and farm REITs.

Stocks

Agriculture or farm stocks give investors access to major publicly-traded companies, including those involved in growing crops and businesses supporting farms. Investing in businesses engaged in crop and food production is one opportunity to explore. Examples of such publicly-traded crop production companies include AppHarvest, Adecoagro SA, and Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.

Another option is to buy shares in various sectors that provide supporting activities. There are hundreds of thousands of companies that specialize in packaging, processing, distribution, and other supporting activities.  Such sectors include crop processors and distributors, equipment manufacturers, and seeds and fertilizer producers. Many businesses are engaged in the production of seeds and fertilizers, for example, including companies such as FMC Corp, Corteva Agriscience, and Scotts Miracle-Gro. The sector was in haywire last year due to severe weather, new export-licensing regulations, and the high cost of natural gas. However, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has made carriers shun Russia, which is a major fertilizer exporter, causing stocks to rise to record levels.

There are also companies that specialize in supporting activities such as processing, transport, and distribution of crops. Some examples include Bunge Limited and Archer Daniels Midland.

Note that while stocks provide good equity returns, the stock markets can be volatile due to adverse conditions, including economic, market, regulatory, and political developments. Foreign securities, in particular, are subject to multiple risks such as political, economic, and currency exchange rate risks. The agriculture and farming industries can be affected by government regulations, global competition, export and import controls, world events, consumption, and commodity prices. For all the reasons above, stocks are considered one of the riskiest investment products.

Farm REITs

Farm real estate investment trusts invest in a portfolio of farmland and then provide farmer-friendly leases. This is the closest you can get to operating an actual farm with the added benefit of significant diversification. REITs provide investors with the opportunity to own stocks in more than one farm and across geographies. Also, stocks have a better liquidity and can be quickly traded on the major exchanges.  Unfortunately, there are just a few farm REITs to invest in, including Gladstone Land Corporation and Farmland Partners Inc.

Agricultural Mutual Funds

Some mutual funds invest in agriculture and farming businesses as part of their portfolio. The goal is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing indirectly or directly in equity-related securities and equities. Similar to stocks, investing in mutual funds can be risky as the value of securities can fluctuate. Adverse events such as floods, droughts, and fires can affect the commodities and agricultural markets and negatively impact demand and supply relationships.

Soft Commodities

Soft commodities are actually futures contracts whereby the underlying commodities are grown and not mined or extracted otherwise. This category covers a wide range of agricultural products, including livestock, wheat, rice, sugar, cotton, coffee, cocoa, and soybeans. Some exchange traded funds and notes give exposure to a single commodity, whether grains or corn, while others include a basket of commodities. The Invesco DB Agriculture ETF, for instance, specializes in sugar, soybeans, wheat, and corn futures contracts. The fund is only suitable for investors with a high-risk profile as it trades in volatile markets. The iPath Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex ETN also invests in a basket of commodities, including cotton, coffee, sugar, soybeans, wheat, and corn. As the ETNs have no principal protection, they are riskier than other types of debt securities. As unsecured debt securities, ETNs are not guaranteed or an obligation, indirectly or directly of a third party. In general, due to risks associated with pathogens and adverse weather conditions, soft commodity features are riskier and more volatile than other debt securities. Harvesting, seeding, and weather forecasts, for instance, can cause fluctuations in oilseed or grain prices, which can affect contract values based on delivery dates.

Using Agricultural Commodities as an Inflation Hedge

Agricultural commodities can be a good investment when inflation rises quickly. The price of agricultural products, industrial and precious metals, gas, and oil rises with inflationary pressures. Due to the fact that these commodities could be volatile markets, it is important to carefully choose the products you would invest in. Also, solid investment firms can be a good choice in uncertain times but commodities only make for a small percentage of the final product they sell.

Corn, soybeans, and livestock are considered some of the best farm commodities to invest in. Corn, for example, is a staple as livestock feed and in ethanol production. Over 1.2 billion metric tons are produced globally per year.

Investors use a variety of futures contracts and ETFs to trade for profit. When predicting price fluctuations, there are different factors they take into account, including oil and gas prices. When prices increase, the ethanol market sees a surge in demand, which results in a higher demand for corn. Also, there are more price fluctuations during the summer months due to the fact that corn is a warm-season crop. If crop-damaging storms occur, this may impact supply and market prices.

With livestock trading, there are different factors that play a role. One is the cost of feed such as soybeans, wheat, and corn. When prices are high, farmers may choose to shorten the period during which livestock is fed, resulting in excess supply. Illnesses that affect livestock, including outbreaks caused by parasites, bacteria, and viruses, also affect demand and supply.

Finally, soybeans are used in margarine, cooking oils, lumber, and building materials. Due to the fact that they have uses in a variety of food products, any news about adverse health effects could result in a low demand.

Filed Under: Finance, Investment, Small Business Tagged With: agriculture, crop, ETF, farm REIT, inflation, investment, REIT, stocks

How is the COVID-19 Pandemic affecting Canadian Small Businesses?

January 28, 2021 by Ben 5 Comments

Canadian companies have been hard hit by the coronavirus crisis, with 81 percent of SMEs reporting being negatively affected, and over 1/3 having concerns about their operations in the coming months. А CIBC poll shows, however, that 76 percent of small businesses are optimistic and confident in being able to move to a phase of recovery post-pandemic. The majority of companies or 85 percent report that the uncertainty of until when measures are going to last is the major challenge they are facing.

2020 and Going Forward

In 2020, more than half of Canadian business owners (54 percent) said that they faced a decline in sales, with 28 percent of companies being forced to temporarily close. Many were to make changes to their operational processes, including cutting business costs (34 percent), applying for business loans (15 percent), resorting to layoffs (25 percent), and using savings (29 percent). Nearly 1/3 of business owners share the opinion that it will take between 12 and 24 months to return to pre-pandemic sales volumes. According to CIBC’s Group Head and Vice-president Laura Dottori-Attanasio, businesses are optimistic about long-term growth and at the same time, they are concerned about their capacity to overcome short-term challenges to full recovery. Reaching out to financial advisors to help them restructure their operational plants and finances will help companies to stay afloat during the ongoing pandemic and to plan for what is to come.

One of the major issues that small businesses face is the shortage of business flows, along with low demand for their services and products. About 1/5 of owners share that they experience financial difficulties and may be unable to pay workers. More than half of companies are also facing debt to pay off while 44 percent of SMEs need additional funding to continue operations and 39 percent will resort to professional advice.

The good news is that over 40 percent of businesses see the crisis as an opportunity for growth and expansion. At the same time, the majority or 74 percent share that they are yet to shift to digital and are facing challenges to this end. The main themes for companies to pay attention to are short-term forecasting, resource optimization, and sources, be it the Canada Emergency Business Account, credit line, inventory, market or locked-in investments, accounts receivable, etc.

Women in the Workforce and Female Entrepreneurs

When it comes to female employees, some 41 percent have been working from home while the rest are essential workers on the front-line in sectors like service, retail, and health. Women have been more severely impacted by the pandemic, both in terms of employment and business opportunities. At the same time, more women are working on the front-line than men meaning that working from home is not an option for them.

Because of nationwide school closures, many women have been left juggling between job and home responsibilities. This has resulted in a widening pay gap and more women taking low-paid jobs.

Female entrepreneurs also report financial difficulties, with 61 percent facing loss of customers and contracts. In Quebec, for example, close to 50 percent of women entrepreneurs admit to having difficulties in accessing financing. In addition, more women-led businesses operate in sectors that have been hard hit by the pandemic, including service, hospitality, and retail.

Other groups have also been more affected by the pandemic, including racialized people, Indigenous Canadians, immigrants, and persons with disabilities. Many report difficulties in accessing financing to stay afloat, despite the serious impact of the crisis on their business.

Government Programs and Funding

Back in October 2020, the Canadian government implemented a series of measures, from rent assistance and increased cash flow to helping businesses keep employees. Some economic sectors are well on the path to recovery while others have been hard hit and in need of support because of the ongoing pandemic. This is why Finance and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced plans to implement measures to help businesses facing declining revenue. One such measure is the Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy through which companies can get mortgage and rent assistance. Entities that are eligible to apply include non-government organizations, charities, and businesses experiencing financial hardship. Other measures to support Canadian businesses are the expanded Canada Emergency Business Account and Canada Emergency Business Subsidy, the latter aiming to help organizations to rehire and pay employees. The former is a measure under which businesses that have been affected can apply for interest-free financing of up to $20,000. QST and GST/HST remittances were also subject to deferral until June, 2020 for amounts remitted between February and April. Finally, medium-sized and small companies can apply for funding under the Business Credit Availability Program run by the Business Development Bank of Canada and Expert Development Canada. The latter also guarantees cash flow and operating credit loans available through banking institutions. Small enterprises, tour operators, and regional businesses that operate in rural areas and fail to qualify under different programs are also offered financial assistance.

Filed Under: Finance, Loans, Mortgages, Small Business Tagged With: CEBA, covid-19, loans, mortgages, pandemic, payroll, rent, small business

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