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Inflation in Canada

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Inflation rates are record high around the world, and Canada is no exception, with an 18-year high of 4.7 percent in November. Prices rose across sectors, ranging from bakery, dairy, and meat to furniture, household products, energy, and transportation.  A combination of factors is driving inflation, the main being money printing, high oil prices, product shortages, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up consumer demand.

Reasons for Record High Inflation

Whether high inflation rates are driven by global supply chain issues or money printing is a hotly debated issue at the moment. In the view of some academics and finance experts at the Bank of Canada, it is supply chain disruptions that cause inflationary pressures and drive food and energy prices up. According to a second group of academics, monetary printing creates an overabundance of demand while supply would not always catch up. The result is inflation whereby prices rise and purchasing power declines.

If we take the monetarists’ argument, inflation is not a temporary phenomenon and requires a tight fiscal policy and interest rate hikes. Such policies would involve tax increases, spending cuts, unemployment, and recession. Recession is generally a period of economic decline marked by substantially lower levels of industrial and economic activity. Businesses see less demand and are forced to lay off workers to cut costs, generating unemployment and insecurity.

As prices rise, inflation also eats away at our money and savings. Inflationary pressures not only result in an overall decline of purchasing power but affect the performance of companies and interest rates on savings accounts. When inflation is high, central banks would typically raise interest rates to discourage consumers from borrowing and buying and keep the cost of goods and services stable. The Bank of Canada recently signaled that interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out as a way to keep inflation under control. The current situation, however, is high inflation and low interest rates on savings whereby the value of your money declines. Fortunately, there are plenty of things to do to protect your savings, like investing in real estate, precious metals, commodities, crypto, and defensive stocks.

Investing in Real Estate

As the value of real estate rises with inflation, rental income can be a potential hedge, especially when it comes to short-term leases such as multi-family properties. Investors who are able to keep their mortgage terms the same and adjust their rent up benefit from inflation. Investing in real estate also provides recurring income that either exceeds or keeps pace with inflation.

Precious Metals

Precious metals such as platinum, silver, and gold are known to be a hedge against inflation as well as a portfolio diversifier. Each precious metal, whether palladium or gold, has its own unique specifics, benefits, and risks. Gold, for example, is less affected by demand and supply, making it easy to sell and buy. An added advantage is the fact that there are different investment options to choose from, including numismatic coins, bars, and proof and bullion gold coins. The downside is that it doesn’t produce passive income the way real estate does.

Commodities

When inflation is high, commodity prices also rise and offer a good return potential. Unlike financial assets such as bonds and stocks, commodities are one of the few investment classes that actually benefit from inflationary pressures. The rationale is that rising demand for services and products results in price increases and hence, the value of the commodities that go into producing goods and services also increases.

Bonds and stocks, on the other hand, tend to perform better when the inflation rate is either slowing or stable. When inflation picks up, it reduces the interest rate that bonds pay while high-dividend and income-oriented stock prices fall. This is why returns from commodity indexes like the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, Credit Suisse Commodities Benchmark, and Bloomberg Commodity Index are independent of bond and stock returns.

Defensive Stocks

Defensive stocks offer stable earnings and dividends regardless of market conditions and typically outperform other investments in periods of economic decline such as recession or stock market crash. The reason is that they belong to sectors of the economy where there are only minor changes in demand. Such sectors are, for example, healthcare, utilities, and food and beverages. The consumer defensive sector includes businesses engaged in the production of packaging, personal and household products, food and beverages, and tobacco. The sector also includes companies offering services such as training and education. Organizations providing healthcare services fall in this category, including medical supplies and equipment, long-term care facilities, hospitals, home health care, research services, and pharmaceuticals. Examples are also life science development and biotech, vaccine developers, and medical device manufacturers. A third sector is utilities, comprising independent power producers and water, gas, and electric utilities and a fourth – communication services such as media and advertising, 5G network, and telephone and broadband.

Crypto Currencies

Investing in crypto currencies can be a viable alternative to stocks and bonds, with a return of over 6 percent. Proponents point to the fact that bitcoin is not tied to a particular economy, fiscal policy or currency and cannot be devalued by a central bank or government printing money. Not only is bitcoin a digital currency but it has a limited supply and is secure, interchangeable, and durable. Finance experts, however, warn that crypto is a highly volatile asset and one tied to speculative trading. Also, cryptocurrencies have been around for a relatively short period to establish whether they can really act as a hedge against inflation.

Gold, on the other hand, has held its value for centuries. Academics at Duke University also note that bitcoin is vulnerable to crashes and manias over relatively short periods, which makes it a risky asset. Its value is tied to two factors – speculative trading and supply. All in all, bitcoin may have a limited value in developed postindustrial countries with stable fiat currencies. Crypto currencies may have a more practical use in countries prone to political instability and turmoil and hyperinflation.

Summing Up

Inflation is currently higher than normal in Canada, primary drivers being money printing, pent-up demand, and supply chain bottlenecks. Droughts affecting agricultural produce across the country are only making things worse.

Global supply chain disruptions are likely to continue in 2022, mainly due to China’s Covid-19 zero policy, resulting in delayed ships and overwhelmed ports. Inflation rates of 4 – 5 percent could also be with us until 2024. While these changes are temporary, a shift in Canada’s monetary policy may not have the desired effect. Hiking interest rates would result in economic slowdown at a time when governments around the world are withdrawing emergency support and fiscal stimulus.

What Canadians can do to protect their savings is invest in precious metals, real estate, defensive stocks, or commodities, all of which acting as a hedge against inflation. Other assets that offer protection against inflation are leveraged loans, real estate investment trusts, and mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds.

Why Is the Real Estate Market in Ontario Cottage Country Booming?

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When the pandemic started, real estate experts warned that home prices would decline due to recessionary pressures. Yet, after a brief downturn last spring, the market not only experienced a boom but this appears to be a lasting trend. The demand for cottage properties is growing for several reasons. One is that many Canadians are working remotely, and many information professionals choose to move to small towns and the countryside. Second is the fact that the border is closed except for essential travel. It is not clear when Canadians could board a plane, hence is the demand for cottage properties to have a vacation at home and within a commuting distance. Third is the fear of inflation and growing real estate prices as inflation has crept a little higher. But there is more driving prices up than remote working, closed borders, and inflationary fears.

Undersupply of Cottage Properties

There has been an undersupply of decent cottage properties in Ontario. The market imbalance is due to a combination of economic, demographic, and historical factors that created supply shortages even before the pandemic. Take Airbnb, for example. The concept behind it was to create a platform that is part of the sharing economy. Yet, the idea of renting out an extra room to make money on the side has proven attractive, and many choose to rent out, creating a shortage of properties for sale. The booming tech industry is also a contributing factor. The tech sector grew by over 50 percent by 2019, with more than 240,000 jobs in the GTA. Think of Shopify, Kik Messaging, Thelmic Labs, Google, Desire to Learn, Open Text, and many more to mention.

Labor shortages over the years resulted in construction delays. The reason for delays is not enough skilled labor. Additionally, the equipment required to build sewer systems and roads is expensive to maintain, run, and buy. Builders and local governments choose not to buy a lot of equipment because of the shortage of land to build on. There is also the demographic factor, with baby boomers moving to the countryside and not into condos in Toronto. Finally thanks to GO Transit’s commuter rail services, Toronto is now connected to the rest of the GTA. Many people choose to buy homes within a commuting distance to Toronto, thus contributing to an already existing housing shortage and growing demand.

Another reason for the shortage of supply is that cottage owners are less willing to sell compared to homeowners in Toronto. As Chestnut Park CEO Chris Kapches explains, the sale of cottages is typically discretionary “unlike sales in urban environments that are often driven by necessity”.  The result is that cottage supply is further dwindling. Given the competitive market and low stock, real estate is now sold in about 23 days while in 2017 properties were sold in 132 days on average.

Because of the chronic undersupply of properties, the number of homebuyers looking to invest in cottage estate now exceeds the number of listings.

Pandemic-Driven Demand

Work from Home

The pandemic has proven information knowledge professionals that they can work from anywhere where they have a stable Internet connection. With travel restrictions and social distancing protocols still in place, cottage life has become more desirable, and survey results prove this trend. A survey published by CTV News show that 47 percent of young people aged 25 – 35 would choose country or small town living. Close to 2/3 of Canadians aged 25 – 40 also say that they prefer to work remotely if given the option. A 2021 survey by Remax also shows that 57 percent of Canadians in Atlantic Canada prefer country living. Overall, 47 percent of Canadians across all age groups would like to live in the countryside.

The pandemic has caused a mindset shift that is likely to stay. The blurring of recreational property and primary residence is at least in part resulting from the blurring of home and work from home. Even occupations with the highest level of proximity have seen and are likely to see further transformation after the pandemic subsides. This is the case with frontline workers who interact with customers in post offices, financial institutions, and retail stores. Work has partly migrated to digital transactions and e-commerce to curb the further spread of the virus. The computer-based office work sector is largely teleworking. It includes office settings in factories, IT companies, courts, hospitals, and financial institutions. This sector accounts for about 30 percent of employment in advanced economies such as Canada’s. Virtual meetings and remote work have become the norm in administrative settings, and this trend is likely to continue.

In fact, data by Statista shows that 24.2 percent of Canadians would like to work most hours from home and 14.7 percent prefer remote work altogether. Additionally, 40.8 percent say they would like to work half of the hours outside and half at home. Only 9 percent of Canadians prefer to work outside the home. As the pandemic has proven employers that remote work can be as productive as working from the office, this shift is likely to be permanent, with many choosing country living.

Low Interest Rates

The demand for rural properties has led to bidding wars that real estate agents have rarely witnessed. Cottage prices are forecasted to grow by 17 percent in 2021 due to the buying frenzy since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to remote work, demand for recreational properties is driven by historic low interest rates. The pandemic and following containment measures imposed across Canada have plunged the economy into severe contraction, causing widespread unemployment. Recessionary pressures also caused interest rates to drop to near historic lows. In response to the pandemic, the Bank of Canada cut the key rate three times in March 2020 alone. Depending on the situation buyers are in, low interest rates on mortgage loans could mean significant savings. Additionally, some homebuyers saved money because they haven’t been able to travel overseas.

Demographic Profile of Buyers

People looking to buy a recreational property are quite diverse when it comes to demographics and age. Some of the homebuyers are families that send their children to summer camps. As sending kids to camps is not an option and might not be for some time, they want to buy a recreational property in a similar setting. Others usually travel abroad during the summer months and are starting to realize that vacationing abroad might not happen as much over the next couple of years. Still others want to invest in a rural property to keep their families safe. There is also a group of people that are interested in buying a property and change their lifestyle.

How is the COVID-19 Pandemic affecting Canadian Small Businesses?

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Canadian companies have been hard hit by the coronavirus crisis, with 81 percent of SMEs reporting being negatively affected, and over 1/3 having concerns about their operations in the coming months. А CIBC poll shows, however, that 76 percent of small businesses are optimistic and confident in being able to move to a phase of recovery post-pandemic. The majority of companies or 85 percent report that the uncertainty of until when measures are going to last is the major challenge they are facing.

2020 and Going Forward

In 2020, more than half of Canadian business owners (54 percent) said that they faced a decline in sales, with 28 percent of companies being forced to temporarily close. Many were to make changes to their operational processes, including cutting business costs (34 percent), applying for business loans (15 percent), resorting to layoffs (25 percent), and using savings (29 percent). Nearly 1/3 of business owners share the opinion that it will take between 12 and 24 months to return to pre-pandemic sales volumes. According to CIBC’s Group Head and Vice-president Laura Dottori-Attanasio, businesses are optimistic about long-term growth and at the same time, they are concerned about their capacity to overcome short-term challenges to full recovery. Reaching out to financial advisors to help them restructure their operational plants and finances will help companies to stay afloat during the ongoing pandemic and to plan for what is to come.

One of the major issues that small businesses face is the shortage of business flows, along with low demand for their services and products. About 1/5 of owners share that they experience financial difficulties and may be unable to pay workers. More than half of companies are also facing debt to pay off while 44 percent of SMEs need additional funding to continue operations and 39 percent will resort to professional advice.

The good news is that over 40 percent of businesses see the crisis as an opportunity for growth and expansion. At the same time, the majority or 74 percent share that they are yet to shift to digital and are facing challenges to this end. The main themes for companies to pay attention to are short-term forecasting, resource optimization, and sources, be it the Canada Emergency Business Account, credit line, inventory, market or locked-in investments, accounts receivable, etc.

Women in the Workforce and Female Entrepreneurs

When it comes to female employees, some 41 percent have been working from home while the rest are essential workers on the front-line in sectors like service, retail, and health. Women have been more severely impacted by the pandemic, both in terms of employment and business opportunities. At the same time, more women are working on the front-line than men meaning that working from home is not an option for them.

Because of nationwide school closures, many women have been left juggling between job and home responsibilities. This has resulted in a widening pay gap and more women taking low-paid jobs.

Female entrepreneurs also report financial difficulties, with 61 percent facing loss of customers and contracts. In Quebec, for example, close to 50 percent of women entrepreneurs admit to having difficulties in accessing financing. In addition, more women-led businesses operate in sectors that have been hard hit by the pandemic, including service, hospitality, and retail.

Other groups have also been more affected by the pandemic, including racialized people, Indigenous Canadians, immigrants, and persons with disabilities. Many report difficulties in accessing financing to stay afloat, despite the serious impact of the crisis on their business.

Government Programs and Funding

Back in October 2020, the Canadian government implemented a series of measures, from rent assistance and increased cash flow to helping businesses keep employees. Some economic sectors are well on the path to recovery while others have been hard hit and in need of support because of the ongoing pandemic. This is why Finance and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced plans to implement measures to help businesses facing declining revenue. One such measure is the Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy through which companies can get mortgage and rent assistance. Entities that are eligible to apply include non-government organizations, charities, and businesses experiencing financial hardship. Other measures to support Canadian businesses are the expanded Canada Emergency Business Account and Canada Emergency Business Subsidy, the latter aiming to help organizations to rehire and pay employees. The former is a measure under which businesses that have been affected can apply for interest-free financing of up to $20,000. QST and GST/HST remittances were also subject to deferral until June, 2020 for amounts remitted between February and April. Finally, medium-sized and small companies can apply for funding under the Business Credit Availability Program run by the Business Development Bank of Canada and Expert Development Canada. The latter also guarantees cash flow and operating credit loans available through banking institutions. Small enterprises, tour operators, and regional businesses that operate in rural areas and fail to qualify under different programs are also offered financial assistance.